Gleadell Market Report

Ukrainian farm ministry reports that farmers are likely to increase the sown area for the 2011 grain crop to 15.7mln hectares, from about 15.2mln in 2010. The area under grains could be larger by 528,000 hectares. The farm ministry also reports 56 percent of the winter grain crops are in good condition, 38 percent satisfactory and six percent poor. APK-inform reports that favourable weather may boost Ukraine’s 2011 grain harvest by 24 percent to 48.7mmt.

China’s NDRC reports that country is holding 100mmt of wheat stocks, with total grain reserves reported at about 40 percent of its annual consumption. Bumper sowings and plentiful rains have put India on course for a fourth successive record wheat harvest as reported by US officials, forecasting that the country may be ‘forced’ to resume exports to free storage space.  India’s wheat plantings reaches record levels of 29.4mln hectares as of March 4th, compared with 28.36mln last year

France exported 1.3mmt of soft wheat in January, putting total shipments in the first seven months of the 2010/11 season at 11.4mmt, 26 percent ahead of last year. Sales to Non-EU countries were reported at 7.7mmt, up 48 percent on the year. DEFRA reports UK wheat area planted as of December 1st 2010 at 1.937mln hectares, up 0.2 percent on December 2009.

USDA report released today left US Corn stocks unchanged, but raised wheat stocks by 25mln bushels due to lower export projections. Global corn stocks increased slightly to 123.14mmt, up from 122.51mmt last month, with wheat stocks increased by 4.13mmt to 181.9mmt, from 177.77mmt last month.

The commodity sell-off, mainly as a result of increased concerns over recent events in North Africa / Middle East and potential demand, coincided with better weather prospects for the US plains and reports that China’s drought situation was easing. Marker fundamentals still remain tight, but have a bit more ‘slack’ than a few weeks ago. New crop prospects, while still remaining favourable, are still open to weather scares / production issues. And these, if and when they happen, will encourage buying interest rather than selling.

This blog is written by Martin Little The Global Miller, published and supported by the GFMT Magazine from Perendale Publishers.