Including upward adjustments for wheat, maize and barley, the estimate for world total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production in 2019/20 is 2m t higher m/m (month-on-month), at 2,172m. Mainly because of a reduction for wheat feeding, the forecast for consumption is trimmed, and with larger supplies but reduced use, the outlook for total grains stocks is boosted by 4m t, to 604m, a drop of 21m y/y (year-on-year). The figure for trade (Jul/Jun) is raised by 2m t, to 379m, mostly reflecting increased wheat shipments.
With the number for India lifted from the last GMR, the projection for world wheat harvested area in 2020/21 is almost 1m ha higher m/m, at 221m, an increase of two percent y/y. Largely reflecting the change for India, some 4m t is added to the outlook for global wheat production in 2020/21, to a new peak of 769m.
Stemming from upgrades for South American producers, world soyabean output in 2019/20 is forecast 3m t higher m/m, at 345m, albeit still five percent lower y/y on a heavily reduced US harvest. With consumption seen unchanged from before, stocks are lifted by 3m t, to 39m (-28% y/y); most of the increase is due to the major exporters as an upgrade for Brazil compensates for a reduction in the US owing to a slightly more optimistic export outlook. Trade is pegged 1m t higher m/m, at 153m (+1% y/y).
An improved outlook for India offsets reductions for other Asian producers, including Thailand, leaving global rice output in 2019/20 steady m/m, at 499m t, just short of the prior year's peak. Global use is seen little-changed y/y, at 495m t. Together with a slight cut to carry-in stocks, the Council's forecast for aggregate inventories is maintained at 177m t (173m). The trade figure is broadly steady m/m, at 44.2m t (42.5m), well below past peaks.
With declines for all the components other than rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by three percent m/m.
For more information and to read the full report visit the IGC website, HERE.
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| Image credit: Paolo Fefe on Flickr (CC BY-ND 2.0) |
Stemming from upgrades for South American producers, world soyabean output in 2019/20 is forecast 3m t higher m/m, at 345m, albeit still five percent lower y/y on a heavily reduced US harvest. With consumption seen unchanged from before, stocks are lifted by 3m t, to 39m (-28% y/y); most of the increase is due to the major exporters as an upgrade for Brazil compensates for a reduction in the US owing to a slightly more optimistic export outlook. Trade is pegged 1m t higher m/m, at 153m (+1% y/y).
An improved outlook for India offsets reductions for other Asian producers, including Thailand, leaving global rice output in 2019/20 steady m/m, at 499m t, just short of the prior year's peak. Global use is seen little-changed y/y, at 495m t. Together with a slight cut to carry-in stocks, the Council's forecast for aggregate inventories is maintained at 177m t (173m). The trade figure is broadly steady m/m, at 44.2m t (42.5m), well below past peaks.
With declines for all the components other than rice, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) weakened by three percent m/m.
For more information and to read the full report visit the IGC website, HERE.
The Global Miller
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which is published by Perendale Publishers Limited.
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