Members of the International Grains Council (IGC) convened for the 58th IGC Council Session on 14th June 2023. The meeting was chaired by Dr. Florence Kaibi, Agriculture Attache, Kenya Embassy to Belgium, Luxembourg & Mission to the EU, Brussels.
With larger maize and sorghum outturns more than compensating for reduced wheat and barley harvests, world grains production was predicted to expand by 40m t y/y, to 2,294m, in 2023/24. With consumption seen advancing by about 2% y/y on increased uptake across feed, food and industrial sectors, end-season stocks were projected to further tighten, to a nine-year low. Trade in 2023/24 (Jul/Jun) was seen edging down, to 408m t, linked to expected smaller wheat flows.
Chiefly tied to prospects for heavy South American crops, global soybean output was projected to rise by 9% y/y, to a peak of 403m t, in 2023/24. Boosted by demand for soya products, consumption was seen advancing to a fresh high, while inventory accumulation was anticipated, including gains in key exporters. While growth was expected to moderate, world import demand (Oct/Sep basis) was predicted at a peak of 173m t. With regard to other oilseeds, another above- average global rapeseed/canola crop was anticipated, with sunflower seed output potentially recovering.
Against the backdrop of anticipated acreage gains and improved yields in Asia, world rice production was projected to increase by 2% y/y, to a record of 521m t in 2023/24, with modest increases in uptake and stocks predicted. Trade was predicted to edge up in 2024 (Jan/Dec) on demand from African importers.
Reflecting firmer demand from Asian buyers, world pulses import demand was seen increasing by 5% y/y, to 18.2m t, in 2023 (Jan/Dec), including bigger shipments of dry peas, lentils and chickpeas. Separately, the Secretariat also presented its latest supply and demand forecasts.
Taking account of the current market situation, members discussed the latest trade-related policy developments, with a particular focus on developments in the Black Sea region. Members were also updated on the likely implications of a recently published three-year action plan by China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs – notably its aim of reducing the proportion of soyameal utilised in feed rations to under 13% by 2025.
Geared to providing more up-to-date and detailed data on bulk seaborne trade in wheat, the WTO and the IGC have developed a new dashboard, launched on 31 May 2023. It will be updated fortnightly and offers an interactive monitoring tool comprised of close to 3,000 datasets, covering delivered, in transit and loading volumes, as well as logistics-related information. Despite its limitations, seaborne shipping data offers unprecedented opportunities for the analysis of trade and logistics, as countries respond to changing market environments. The project envisages a further expansion to include other key commodities.
The IGC Secretariat also appraised members of the extension of its price data series for pulses and oats, as well as its cooperation with MED-Amin in developing an early warning system, in part related to the durum market. Separately, the Secretariat highlighted work completed on expanding its regular supply and demand analysis to include sunflower seed and specific pulses.
The Council agreed a new programme of work for 2023/24, noting that the Secretariat would continue to concentrate on its core economic activities in relation to global market challenges.
Projects for the forthcoming year would include:
Updating and developing models of global supply and demand for ethanol and biodiesel, respectively. Related to this, the IGC will augment its current news database to include separate biofuels-related articles;
The further expansion of its collection, coverage and monitoring of real-time shipping data, to include other grains, soyabeans and rice;
Additional analysis of trade in grains, rice and oilseeds, focusing on the identification of vulnerabilities and bottlenecks in global food supply chains, while also enhancing dialogue between producers and importers.
The Council agreed to extend the Grains Trade Convention, 1995, by a further two years to 30 June 2025.
The Council appointed Ms. Anita Katial, incoming Agricultural Counsellor for the United Kingdom
and the Republic of Ireland, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, London, as Chairperson for 2023/24. Mr. Hamed Oussama Salhi, First Secretary (Agriculture), Embassy of Algeria in London was appointed Vice-Chairperson for 2023/24.
The Council welcomed the participation of observers from Brazil, Taipei (Chinese) Separate Customs Territory and Niger, as well as representatives from AMIS, FAO, OECD, WTO, IGTC and MED-Amin/CIHEAM.
During the 32nd IGC Grains Conference, under the banner Achieving food security for importers in volatile world markets, held in London on 12-13 June 2023, the IGC and the government of Japan, under its G7 presidency, co-hosted a high-level dialogue between importing and producing countries to discuss how governments should prepare for future crises based on lessons learned during recent events, also taking account of which policy measures and actions should be encouraged as a means of enhancing predictability and mitigating food market volatility, thereby avoiding potential disruption to food supply chains.
The IGC Grains Conference is an integral part of London Grains Week, a week-long series of events, centred around the vital role of international trade. It provides a unique opportunity for key operators across the entire grains value chain to discuss the latest trade challenges and opportunities.
For more information and a recording of the dialogue, visit HERE.
This blog is maintained by The Global Miller staff and is supported by the magazine Milling and Grain
which is published by Perendale Publishers Limited.
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