January 25, 2024 - At the invitation of the US government, members of the International Grains Council (IGC) convened for the 59th Council Session on 24 January 2024 at the Roosevelt New Orleans hotel. The meeting was chaired by Ms Anita Katial, USDA's Agricultural Counsellor for the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland, US Embassy London. The IGC Grains Forum 2024, 'Biofuels market outlook and grains market development' was held in advance of the Session.
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The Secretariat presented supply and demand forecasts and market developments for grains, rice and oilseeds in 2023/24, as well as tentative projections for selected commodities in 2024/25.
Aggregate grains production was seen totalling a record 2307m t in 2023/24, with the two percent y/y increase tied mainly to a solid rebound in maize output. Consumption is expected to climb by two percent y/y, to 2314m t, with feed, food and industrial uptake seen at fresh peaks. Global inventories may contract to 590m (minus one percent), a seventh successive drawdown. Including smaller wheat, maize and barley shipments, cumulative word trade is forecast to retreat by three percent y/y, to 415m t.
Amid lower prices and less than ideal sowing weather in some countries, the Council noted that global wheat harvested area was predicted to drop by one percent in 2024/25. While rapeseed/canola plantings were likely to contract, they would remain well above average.
Tied to prospects for a rebound in Argentina, global soybean production in 2023/24 was seen at a record of 392m t, a six percent y/y gain. Also linked to gains in Argentina, consumption was pegged at a peak, while aggregate inventories were set to climb for a second successive year, including accumulation in key exporters. After the prior year's solid expansion, world trade was predicted to retreat by two percent y/y, to 168m t, as China and Argentina likely buy less, with Brazilian exports also forecast to decline.
On the basis of reduced yield potential in Asian growers, outweighing gains elsewhere, global rice output in 2023/24 was predicted to decline by one percent y/y, to 511m t. As a consequence, a softening of demand was anticipated, while stocks were set to tighten, including in key exporters. Trade was projected to contract by two percent in 2024, most on weaker buying interest from Asian importers, including Indonesia. India was seen as the world's biggest exporter despite another sizeable fall in shipments.
The Secretariat updated members on developments about its ongoing programme of work including its work on the expansion of its coverage and monitoring of real-time shipping data for wheat, maize, barley, soybeans and rice. The additional layer of information would provide members with specialist data to assess logistics and infrastructural challenges.
Concering administrative issues, the council agreed to consider the Republic of Senegal's application to join the Grains Trade Convention. Members were also informed of the latest partnership agreement with the Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) to exchange information on rice market developments.
The Council received statements from the WTO and IGTC on recent developments affecting grains trade.
On 23 January 2024, delegates also participated in a field trip to the Port of New Orleans organised by the North American Export Grains Association (NAEGA). The visit underscored the importance of these facilities in ensuring sustained flows of agricultural commodities to global markets, while also highlighting investments by a range of global agribusiness companies.
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which is published by Perendale Publishers Limited.
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