The
compound feed production in the EU-271 in 2012 reached an estimated
level of 151.9 mio. t, i.e. the same volume as in 2011 and 2010,
according to the preliminary statistical data provided by FEFAC members.
While
pig feed production dropped by 2 percent, cattle and poultry feed have
seen their production grow respectively by +1.5 and +1%. As a
consequence, poultry feed consolidated its position of leading segment
of EU compound feed production slightly above pig feed.
The
most important factors which have weighed on the EU feed demand in 2012
were the still fragile economic situation of the pig sector and soaring
feed material costs.
Among
the largest producing countries, Germany and UK performed rather well,
with annual growth slightly above 2 percent, while France and Poland
remained stable and Spain, Italy and The Netherlands saw their
production fall at rates between -1 and -2%. Production of poultry feed
in Southern Europe was affected in particular by the implementation of
the new welfare standards for laying hens.
The
high cereal prices over the last two years contributed to improving the
competitive market position of industrial compound feed production vs.
home mixing. However, this gain was offset to a certain extent by the
development of alternative pig feeding strategies based on roughly
grinded feed and liquid feeding.
As
a result, Germany’s position as leading EU country in terms of total
compound feed production before France was strengthened, with Spain
scoring third place.
The
final estimate and detailed breakdown of the 2012 results will be
presented on the occasion of the XXVI FEFAC Congress on June 5-8, 2013 in Kracow.
Market Outlook for 2013
FEFAC
market experts foresee a stabilisation in poultry feed production, a
further reduction in pig feed production (-1%) and a slight increase in
cattle feed demand (+1%).
Further market uncertainties are linked to
the impact of the implementation of the new group-housing requirements
for sows. Overall, compound feed production is expected to remain
unchanged vs. 2012.
The
demand for agricultural commodities is expected to remain high in 2013,
with the main consequences of maintaining quotations at a high level.
The quotations for agricultural raw materials increased significantly
during the second half of 2012. With prices expected to stay high, the
average cost for supply of feed materials could be higher in 2013, as
compared to 2012. After two major crop failures for soybean in South and
North America, a record harvest for soybean is expected in Brazil in
2013, but its positive impact may be undermined by the storage and
logistics issues it could trigger. On the cereals side, the uncertainty
is still important regarding the quantity and quality of the next
harvest, due to bad weather conditions in major exporting countries.