November 11, 2024 - Last week the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) held their 2024 Grain Market Outlook (GMO) briefing in Birmingham. The event included engaging discussions around both domestic and global markets, as well as government policy and its impact on UK food production.
Contrasts in global markets
Overall, the global grain market is somewhat fragile, with a projected deficit, despite lacklustre global demand. With a stronger reliance on Southern Hemisphere crops this season, production in these regions is one to keep an eye on. Another are to watch are the slowing of the Black Sea export pace and trade policies, which may change, following the results of the US election. Wheat supplies are also expected to be tight this season, whereas maize is looking more comfortable.
When it comes to global oilseeds, although rapeseed markets are supported by tight supplies and high palm oil prices, soybeans are acting as somewhat of an anchor with ample supplies, which are growing now that concerns are easing for South American crops.
UK supply and demand - 2024/25 and beyond
Despite entering the season with nearly 3Mt of wheat, the drop in production this season is expected to outweigh the rise in carry-in stocks, strong imports and a reduction in consumption, which will leave us with the tightest balance since 2020/21. The barley balance sheet is also expected to be tighter in 2024/25, which is driven by higher domestic consumption on the back of lower availability.
Long-term trends show steady demand for flour milling and limited growth in animal feed. There is currently a trend of a reduction in alcohol consumption which, if it continues, could mean that barley usage by brewers, maltster and distillers could decrease long term.
There is an increase on the UK's domestic reliance on imports for rapeseed as production is outweighing the decline in crush volume.
To what extent will the SFI remove land used for food production?
It is expected that Sustainable Farming Incentive (SFI) actions will be implemented on existing uncropped arable land, which makes up 5-6% of England's total droppable area, with the potential for an additional 1-2% to be added due to switching out of problematic crops, growth in applications and short-term reactions.
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The Global MillerThis blog is maintained by The Global Miller staff and is supported by the magazine Milling and Grain
which is published by Perendale Publishers Limited.
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