April 22, 2024 - The second wettest August to February since 1837 has severely limited the planting of wheat in the UK, with official estimates indicating the UK wheat area will be the second smallest since 1980. Additionally, current prospects for yield also look poor, with prolonged wet weather having damaged and stunted the development of wheat that farmers were able to plant.
The prospects for the breadmaking wheat element of the crop are even worse, according to UK Flour Millers head of technical, Joe Brennan.
"The poor outlook for the upcoming UK wheat harvest is going to pose a real challenge. For milling wheat this is exacerbated by the decline in popularity of high quality breadmaking wheat varieties, Group 1, which make up the backbone of UK flour milling demand."
An estimate of breadmaking wheat production for 2024 based off the forecasted area and yields from previous years (Figure A) indicate the upcoming harvest could be the smallest in over ten years and down almost 40 percent on 2023.
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The high prices of nitrogen fertiliser, which whilst down from peaks have continued to sit 40 percent higher than before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are also limiting production of-breadmaking wheat that meets quality specifications. This cost as well as weather affected the recent wheat crop, with the AHDB Cereal Quality Survey indicating only 13 percent of Group 1 breadmaking wheat met the typical milling quality specification, compared to 33 percent in 2022.
This is reflected in the wheat market, with the spread between breadmaking and feed wheat prices since 2023 over twice as high as the average of prior years (Figure B).
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| Figure B. UK delivered breadmaking quotations (nearby, Northamptonshire) and monthly average UK feed wheat future (nearby). Source: AHDB price data3. Accessed: 15/04/2024. |
Joe added: "We'll be going into next season very low on homegrown quality breadmaking wheat, which will make next season even tighter."
Wheat planted in prolonged wet conditions tend to generate very shallow roots, making it vulnerable to drought later in the season; weather is set to be a key watchpoint for the coming months. Weather in Germany will also be closely monitored, as farmers there have faced similarly extreme wet conditions over the wheat planting window.
"It's a bit of a perfect storm, as high protein German wheat is normally the substitute for British breadmaking wheat if we cannot get enough at the right quality in a season. Farmers and millers are hoping for kinder weather in the months leading up to harvest," Joe concluded.
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The Global MillerThis blog is maintained by The Global Miller staff and is supported by the magazine Milling and Grain
which is published by Perendale Publishers Limited.
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