May 12, 2017

12/05/2017: Rabobank Report - To Fishmeal or beyond?

Rabobank have released a report about the recovery of fish meal supply in Peru and the rise of alternative meals and oils. 

Authored by Gorjan Nikolik & Beyhan de Jong who are with RaboResearch - Food & Agribusines, the report has two parts:

1.      Outlook of fish meal supply and prices. With now one good season in Peru behind us and another good season on the way supply is good and prices have stabilised at a relatively lower level. If no new El Nino comes, which is can always happened, this could be the new supply and price level for the next few years. 

2.      In the past few years, marked with scarcity of fish meal and fish oil and high prices, many projects for alternative meals and oils have been stated world-wide. Many are in the pre-profit start-up phase. Based on our observations and conversation with the industry we single out three technological platforms, Microbials, as a supplier meals (such as Calysta) and Algae as a supplier of algae based oils (such as Terravia). Also insects potentially a supplier of both proteins and lipids (such as Protix).

They combined these two observations to make the conclusion that the next few years will be decisive for the rising alternatives producers. Some will emerge and achieve scale which may in the medium term further erode prices or at least prevent prices from rising again to what they had been. This means all the others will need to find niche markets for their products where pure price competition is avoided or they will need to have investors with a long term view, as profitability may take longer to be achieved than previously expected.

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