Tobin Gorey, analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, quoted the aphorism from John Maynard Keynes, the renowned economist, in assessing the rally in wheat futures (which continued on Thursday).
Mr Gorey himself is relatively upbeat on the prospects for wheat prices, which is being driven by concerns of a squeeze on Russian supplies, although he cited the firmness in the US cash market, the Agrimoney website reports.
"Physical premiums for US wheat remain firm at port so there's no obvious sign yet that prices have overshot.”
However, he acknowledged that other commentators "are sceptical of the rally's foundations" and that they "might prove to be correct – ultimately.
"Ultimately, though, can be a long while away.”
Certainly, it had not arrived as of 09:30 UK time (03:30 Chicago time) when wheat futures for March were 2.7 percent higher at US$6.66 a bushel, earlier touching a near-seven-month high, for a spot contract, of US$6.77 a bushel.
At its high, the contract had gained 16.4 percent, nearly US$1 a bushel, in six sessions.
(Given the US harvested 455 million bushels this year of soft red winter wheat, the type traded in Chicago, the gain had also in theory added US$430m to the value of the crop, not including the increases to hard red winter wheat etc as well.)
Not that there was particularly any further news on the ideas of a Russian wheat export squeeze, with the current idea, based on comments from phytosanitary officials, that shipments to a handful of importing countries, such as Egypt, will be fine, but to others… maybe.
"There is talk that phyto certs for many of their best customers will not be taken off the table," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
The other key issue is whether the declining rouble will prompt farmers to hoard crop, as a dollar-denominated hedge, rather than sell it, so constraining exports too (as well as supplies for the domestic market that Russia needs to have a hope of curtailing food inflation).
In fact, the rouble was showing a small decline, of 0.6 percent, against the dollar, standing at 60.50 roubles to US$1, but remains well above Tuesday's low of nearly 80 roubles to US$1.
Much on this score will depend on a speech later by Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, which will address the country's financial turmoil, and could one of the most important addresses of his career.
Read more HERE.
Mr Gorey himself is relatively upbeat on the prospects for wheat prices, which is being driven by concerns of a squeeze on Russian supplies, although he cited the firmness in the US cash market, the Agrimoney website reports.
"Physical premiums for US wheat remain firm at port so there's no obvious sign yet that prices have overshot.”
However, he acknowledged that other commentators "are sceptical of the rally's foundations" and that they "might prove to be correct – ultimately.
"Ultimately, though, can be a long while away.”
Certainly, it had not arrived as of 09:30 UK time (03:30 Chicago time) when wheat futures for March were 2.7 percent higher at US$6.66 a bushel, earlier touching a near-seven-month high, for a spot contract, of US$6.77 a bushel.
At its high, the contract had gained 16.4 percent, nearly US$1 a bushel, in six sessions.
(Given the US harvested 455 million bushels this year of soft red winter wheat, the type traded in Chicago, the gain had also in theory added US$430m to the value of the crop, not including the increases to hard red winter wheat etc as well.)
Not that there was particularly any further news on the ideas of a Russian wheat export squeeze, with the current idea, based on comments from phytosanitary officials, that shipments to a handful of importing countries, such as Egypt, will be fine, but to others… maybe.
"There is talk that phyto certs for many of their best customers will not be taken off the table," Brian Henry at Benson Quinn Commodities said.
The other key issue is whether the declining rouble will prompt farmers to hoard crop, as a dollar-denominated hedge, rather than sell it, so constraining exports too (as well as supplies for the domestic market that Russia needs to have a hope of curtailing food inflation).
In fact, the rouble was showing a small decline, of 0.6 percent, against the dollar, standing at 60.50 roubles to US$1, but remains well above Tuesday's low of nearly 80 roubles to US$1.
Much on this score will depend on a speech later by Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, which will address the country's financial turmoil, and could one of the most important addresses of his career.
Read more HERE.
The Global Miller
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