July 01, 2015

01/07/2015: Famsun: World agricultural supply and demand estimates

Global wheat supplies for 2014/15 are fractionally lower due mainly to reduced production in Brazil, which is partially offset by a larger Belarus crop, Famsun says. Both changes are based on updated government statistics. Global wheat exports are up 0.5 million tons. The primary export increase is for the EU with a high rate of both shipments and export licenses. Imports are up 0.3 million tons each for Morocco, the Philippines and Thailand, 0.2 million tons each for Jordan and Vietnam, and 0.1 million tons each for Ecuador and Saudi Arabia. These increases are partially offset by reductions of 0.3 million tons each for Algeria, Syria and Yemen, 0.2 million tons for Libya and 0.1 million tons each for Israel and Japan. 
    
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Image: Herry Lawford
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is down fractionally due to lower feed use, which is partially offset by increased wheat feeding. The largest decreases for feed use are Brazil, India and Syria (down 0.3 million tons each), and Libya and Yemen (down 0.2 million tons each). Feed use is up 0.5 million tons for Australia and 0.2 million tons for Thailand. This is partially offset by a 0.2-million-ton reduction in Israeli wheat feeding. With world supplies falling faster than demand, ending stocks are reduced fractionally. 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected as 2.4 million tons lower, mostly due to reduced corn beginning stocks and production for South Africa. Upward revisions to 2005/06 through 2009/10 South Africa corn consumption lowered estimated stocks over the last decade and caused a 2.2-million-ton reduction in 2014/15 beginning stocks. A 1.0-million-ton increase in Brazil beginning stocks is partly offset by 2013/14 production being up 0.5 million tons and exports lowered 0.5 million tons. Argentina corn exports are up 0.5 million tons for 2013/14. 

Global corn production for 2014/15 is down 1.6 million tons with reductions for South Africa and Belarus only partly offset by an increase for Argentina. South Africa corn output is down 2.0 million tons as February dryness and periodic heat, particularly in the western and central corn growing regions, coincided with corn pollination. Corn production is down 0.1 million tons for Belarus, based on indications of lower harvested area from the Ministry of Agriculture. Argentina's corn production is up 0.5 million tons as a small reduction in harvested area due to recent flooding is more than offset by higher expected yields with abundant soil moisture available for pollination and grain fill in other areas. Developing dryness in southern growing areas, however, limits this month’s yield increase.
 

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