May 10, 2016

10/05/2016: GAFTA Seminar: Transition to new grain crop in the Black Sea

GAFTA, the Grain and Feed Trade Association will be holding a seminar at its Headquarters in London next Monday, 16 May, from 17.00 to 18.30.  

The seminar will be titled 'Transition to new grain crop in the Black Sea.'

Every spring in the grains market talk intensifies around expectations for the new wheat and corn crops in the Northern hemisphere. Weather patterns, carry-over stocks, harvest expectations and farmers’ willingness to sell are all hot topics. All of these expectations are continuously priced into the futures market and reflected in physical pricing.
In the wheat market, it seems like weather has played its part, with most of the crop in the Northern hemisphere in good or excellent condition, despite some exceptions such as Ukraine. However, uncertainty still lurks in the Black Sea region where the Russian government can turn the market around in trice. As Russia leads world wheat exports with a tad less than 22 million mt exported in the current marketing year, it sets the tone for wheat prices for other Black Sea origins and also affects world prices.

In the corn market, recently there has been a lot of talk about adverse weather in Brazil and Argentina, which had a notable impact on Chicago corn contracts. Additionally there is still concern about the effects of a possible La Nina during summer 2016.

All these factors come into play in an oversupplied market, with world corn stocks are set to increase for the fourth year in a row. China’s stocks are still the Sword of Damocles hanging over the corn market, with somewhere between 111 million and 270 million mt of carryover stocks, a lot depends whether the Chinese government decides to release these stocks.

Physical commodities pricing has a notable impact on trading companies’ ability to fulfill their contractual obligations. Every year, in July and August as new-crop wheat arrives, and September – October as the new-crop corn arrives; the trading community is able to find out who took the right positions at the right price.
Crops in Romania (Image: Paul Chiorean)
Andrei Agapi is leading the European and Black Sea Grains coverage for Platts in London. He maintains close relationships with market participants, gathering information to measure the prices of wheat and corn on both FOB and CIF bases on a daily basis.

Andrei’s background is in the financial sector, having worked in private equity, where he was involved in market analysis of clean-tech agriculture companies in Europe. He holds an undergraduate degree in economics from Pierre-Mendez France University in Grenoble and a master’s in finance from Toulouse Business School, France.

When:  Monday 16th May 2016 17.00 to 18.30 hours
Where: Gafta, 9 Lincoln's Inn Fields, London, UK, WC2A 3BP

17.00 Welcome Drinks
17.30 Seminar
18.30 End

Register online HERE.

The Global Miller
This blog is maintained by The Global Miller staff and is supported by the magazine GFMT
which is published by Perendale Publishers Limited.

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